The Southern Annular Mode determines interannual and centennial-scale fire activity in temperate southwest Tasmania, Australia

Abstract

Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere. While it is well established that the current anthropogenic-driven trend in SAM is responsible for decreased rainfall in southern Australia, its role in driving fire regimes in this region has not been explored. We examined the connection between fire activity and SAM in southwest Tasmania, which lies in the latitudinal band of strongest correlation between SAM and rainfall in the Southern Hemisphere. We reveal that fire activity during a fire season is significantly correlated with the phase of SAM in the preceding year using superposed epoch analysis. We then synthesized new 14 charcoal r..